The probability of a given candidate winning a future election is worked out in closed form as a function of (i) the current support rates for each candidate. (ii) the relative positioning of the candidates within the political spectrum. (iii) the time left to the election. and (iv) the rate at which noisy information is revealed to the electorate from now to the election day. https://www.spidertattooz.com/Zenith-El-Primero-36-000-VpH-03-2150-400/